Next Gen Stats announces new metrics for 2020 season
The Next Gen Stats team has announced several new, advanced stats for the 2020 NFL season.
Here is a quick look at some of the new metrics to keep an eye on as we approach the start of the regular season.
Expected Rushing Yards:
"On the individual play level, we can estimate how many rushing yards a ball carrier will gain from the moment of the handoff and the likelihood the player gains a first down or scores a touchdown... At the game, season and multi-season level, we can compare a running back's efficiency relative to the rest of the league, find game situations and play characteristics where players excel or struggle, and break down O-line performance and coaching schemes."
Route Recognition:
"We can analyze speed metrics relative to route types, assess how well a receiver gets open, explore how a defense (or individual defender) performs against specific routes -- the list could go on."
Live Win Probability
The NGS team has developed our own Live Win Probability model that evaluates the likelihood of either team winning at any moment between plays in the game. The model, trained on every historical play in the last 10 seasons, looks at the score differential, down-and-distance, time remaining, timeouts remaining, expected points and team quality. New for the 2020 campaign: Fans will be able to track Live Win Probabilities for every game this season at nextgenstats.nfl.com.
Field Goal Probability (2020 update)
"Last season, we rolled out a Field Goal Probability model to estimate the likelihood of a made field goal, given the distance of the kick, weather and stadium type. The model used logistic regression to predict the probability of a successful field goal.
"This year, we've made updates to the model. Using a modeling technique called ensembling, our new and improved Field Goal Probability model uses a blended estimate of the same logistic regression model used in 2019, with an additional xgboost model (non-linear, tree-based method) that does a better job of predicting longer field goals (55-plus yards) than the logistic regression.
"By controlling for the level of difficulty of each kick, we can better contextualize kicker performance relative to expectations. At the season and multi-season level, the difference between a kicker's actual field goal percentage and expected field goal percentage is equivalent to a measure of field goal percentage over expectation (FGOE)."
Expected Yards After Catch (2020 update)
Our Expected Yards After Catch model, which we originally debuted in 2018, will be replaced with the same modeling structure as the Expected Rushing Yards model. Just like on run plays, the new EYAC model (combined with Completion Probability) will also have the ability to estimate outcome probabilities like first downs and touchdowns, in addition to a single point estimate.
Reports: Giants agree to terms with CB Logan Ryan
The Giants have agreed to terms with two-time Super Bowl champion cornerback and New Jersey native Logan Ryan, according to reports.
The signing is contingent upon Ryan clearing COVID-19 protocols and passing a physical.
Ryan, 5-11 and 195 pounds, is entering his eighth NFL season. He spent his first four years in New England when Joe Judge was the Patriots' special teams assistant coach and then coordinator. Ryan played the past three seasons for the Tennessee Titans.
Ryan has played in 109 career regular-season games with 89 starts and in 15 postseason games in 10 starts. His career totals include 522 tackles (374 solo); 17 interceptions, including one he returned 79 yards for a touchdown; 78 passes defensed; and eight forced fumbles. In the postseason, he has 89 tackles (70 solo), two interceptions and eight passes defensed.
In 2019, Ryan started all of the Titans' 19 games as they advanced to the AFC Championship Game. He led the team in the regular season with 113 tackles (73 solo) and was second with four interceptions and also topped the team in the playoffs with 25 tackles (18 solo) and added a pick.
Ryan played on the Patriots teams that defeated Seattle in Super Bowl XLIX and Atlanta in Super Bowl LI.
He entered the NFL as New England's third-round draft choice (No. 83 overall) in 2013. Ryan joined the Titans as a free agent in 2017.
Ryan was born in Berlin, N.J. and starred at Eastern High School in Vorhees Township in South Jersey, as well as Rutgers University.
The Giants have signed cornerback Logan Ryan.
Tennessee Titans defensive back Logan Ryan (26) lines up for the snap during a regular season Week 13 NFL football game between the Houston Texans and the Tennessee Titans, Sunday December 3, 2017 in Nashville, Tenn. The Titans beat the Texans 24-13 (Matt Patterson via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) in coverage during an NFL AFC divisional playoff football game against the New England Patriots on Saturday, Jan. 13, 2018 in Foxborough, Mass. New England won 35-14. (Aaron M. Sprecher via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) waves his arms as he comes onto the field in a cloud of white smoke during pregame player introductions before the 2017 NFL week 9 regular season football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, Nov. 5, 2017 in Nashville, Tenn. The Titans won the game 23-20. (Paul Spinelli via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) during an NFL football game against the Oakland Raiders, Sunday, September 10, 2017, in Nashville, TN. The Raiders won 26-16. (Paul Abell via AP)
Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (13) runs a route in front of Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) during a week 6 NFL football game on Monday, Oct. 16, 2017 in Nashville, Tenn. Tennessee won 36-22. (Aaron M. Sprecher via AP)
Tennessee Titans Logan Ryan (26) plays in a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars during an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 17, 2017, in Jacksonville, Fla. (Tom DiPace via AP)
Tennessee Titans defensive back Logan Ryan gets set on defense in action against the Kansas City Chiefs during a NFL AFC Wildcard football game on Saturday, Jan. 6, 2018, in Kansas City, Mo. The Titans won, 22-21. (G. Newman Lowrance via AP)
Tennessee Titans defensive back Logan Ryan (26) sets up for a play during the first half of an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday, Sept. 23, 2018, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) in coverage during an NFL AFC Championship football against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Jan. 19, 2020, in Kansas City, MO. Kansas City won 35-24. (Aaron M. Sprecher via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) looks on during the game against the Kansas City Chiefs during the NFL AFC Championship football game, Sunday, Jan. 19, 2020, in Kansas City, MO. The Chiefs defeated the Titans 35-24. (Paul Spinelli via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) in coverage during an NFL AFC Championship football against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Jan. 19, 2020, in Kansas City, MO. Kansas City won 35-24. (Aaron M. Sprecher via AP)
Tennessee Titans defensive back Logan Ryan (26) looks to defend during an NFL divisional playoff football game, Saturday, Jan. 11, 2020, in Baltimore. The Titans beat the Ravens 28-12. (Matt Patterson via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) stands in pass coverage as he awaits the snap of the football during the NFL AFC Championship football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Jan. 19, 2020, in Kansas City, MO. The Chiefs defeated the Titans 35-24. (Scott Boehm via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) in coverage during an NFL AFC Championship football against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Jan. 19, 2020, in Kansas City, MO. Kansas City won 35-24. (Aaron M. Sprecher via AP)
Tennessee Titans defensive back Logan Ryan gets set on defense against the Kansas City Chiefs during an NFL AFC Championship football game, Sunday, Jan. 19, 2020, in Kansas City, Mo. The Chiefs won, 35-24. (G. Newman Lowrance via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) gets set during the game against the Kansas City Chiefs during the NFL AFC Championship football game, Sunday, Jan. 19, 2020, in Kansas City, MO. The Chiefs defeated the Titans 35-24. (Paul Spinelli via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) in coverage during an NFL AFC Championship football against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Jan. 19, 2020, in Kansas City, MO. Kansas City won 35-24. (Aaron M. Sprecher via AP)
(Matt Patterson via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) drops into coverage in an NFL divisional playoff football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Saturday, Jan. 11, 2020 in Baltimore. The Titans defeated the Ravens 28-12
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) drops into coverage in an NFL divisional playoff football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Saturday, Jan. 11, 2020 in Baltimore. The Titans defeated the Ravens 28-12
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) defends against the Baltimore Ravens during the second half of an NFL divisional playoff football game, Saturday, Jan. 11, 2020, in Baltimore. The Titans won 28-12. (Perry Knotts via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) closes to the ball in an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the New England Patriots, Saturday, January 4, 2020 in Foxborough, Mass. The Titans defeated the Patriots 20-13.
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) drops into coverage in an NFL divisional playoff football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Saturday, Jan. 11, 2020 in Baltimore. The Titans defeated the Ravens 28-12
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) during an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints, Sunday, Dec. 22, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. The Saints beat the Titans 38-28. (Cooper Neill via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan is seen before a play against the Baltimore Ravens during the second half of an NFL divisional playoff football game, Saturday, Jan. 11, 2020, in Baltimore. The Titans won 28-12. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) during an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints, Sunday, Dec. 22, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. The Saints beat the Titans 38-28. (Cooper Neill via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) celebrates with his teammates after an interception during an NFL football game against the New England Patriots, Saturday, Jan. 4, 2019, in Foxborough, Mass.(Logan Bowles via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) celebrates his interception during an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the New England Patriots on Saturday, Jan. 4, 2020 in Foxborough, Mass. The Titans won, 20-13. (Ric Tapia via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) in coverage during an NFL regular season football game against the Houston Texans on Sunday, Dec. 29, 2019 in Houston. The Titans won, 35-14. (Ric Tapia via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) looks on during an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints, Sunday, Dec. 22, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. The Saints beat the Titans 38-28. (Cooper Neill via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan celebrates his interception for a touchdown against the New England Patriots in the second half of an NFL wild-card playoff football game, Saturday, Jan. 4, 2020, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
Tennessee Titans defensive back Logan Ryan (26) runs to the play during an NFL football game against the Houston Texans, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. The Texans beat the Titans 24-21. (Matt Patterson via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan warms up before an NFL wild-card playoff football game against the New England Patriots, Saturday, Jan. 4, 2020, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) drops into coverage during an NFL football game against the Houston Texans, Sunday Dec. 15, 2019 in Nashville. The Texans defeated the Titans 24-21. (Damian Strohmeyer via AP)
Tennessee Titans defensive back Logan Ryan (26) in action on defense during an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, Nov. 10, 2019 in Nashville, Tenn. The Titans defeated the Chiefs 35-32. (Joe Robbins via AP)
Tennessee Titans' Logan Ryan (26) celebrates after sacking Houston Texans quarterback AJ McCarron during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 29, 2019, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)
CB Logan Ryan
(Ryan Kang via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) against the Oakland Raiders during an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Dec. 8, 2019. (AP Photo/D. Ross Cameron)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) celebrates after an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, Oct. 20, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. The Titans defeated the Chargers, 23-20. (Ryan Kang via AP)
Tennessee Titans defensive back Logan Ryan (26) makes the tackle on tight end Darren Fells (87) after a reception during an NFL football game against the Houston Texans, Sunday, Dec. 15, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. The Texans beat the Titans 24-21. (Matt Patterson via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) intercepts a pass intended for Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Zach Pascal (14) during the second half of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Dec. 1, 2019. (AP Photo/AJ Mast)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) calls out a coverage during an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers Sunday, Nov. 3, 2019 in Charlotte, N.C. The Panthers defeated the Titans 30-20. (Damian Strohmeyer via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan wears special cleats as part of the NFL's "My Cause My Cleats" campaign before an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 15, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) defends during an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, Oct. 20, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. The Titans defeated the Chargers, 23-20. (Ryan Kang via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) follows a play during the second half of an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars Thursday, Sept. 19, 2019, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan plays against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 27, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/James Kenney)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) defends during an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, Oct. 20, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. The Titans defeated the Chargers, 23-20. (Ryan Kang via AP)
Tennessee Titans defensive back Logan Ryan (26) lines up before the snap during a regular season Week 7 NFL football game between the Tennessee Titans and the Cleveland Browns on Sunday October 22, 2017 in Cleveland. The Titians beat the Browns 12-9 in overtime (Matt Patterson via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan, center, hits Denver Broncos quarterback Joe Flacco as he releases during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 13, 2019, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) runs onto the field during player introductions prior to an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, Oct. 20, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. The Titans defeated the Chargers, 23-20. (Ryan Kang via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) plays against the Cleveland Browns during the second half in an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 8, 2019, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) during the second half of an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars Thursday, Sept. 19, 2019, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan Ebenhack)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) closes in on Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) in the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 6, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/James Kenney)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan plays against the Indianapolis Colts in an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 15, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/James Kenney)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) runs the ball back after he intercepted a pass against the Indianapolis Colts in the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 15, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. Ryan was ruled down where the interception was made. (AP Photo/James Kenney)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) during an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns, Sunday, Sept. 8, 2019, in Cleveland. Tennessee won 43-13. (Aaron Doster via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan plays against the Indianapolis Colts in an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 15, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/James Kenney)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) plays against the Cleveland Browns during the second half in an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 8, 2019, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)
Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) is under pressure from Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) during the first half in an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 8, 2019, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/David Richard)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) during an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns, Sunday, Sept. 8, 2019, in Cleveland. Tennessee won 43-13. (Aaron Doster via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) during an NFL preseason football game against the New England Patriots on Saturday, Aug. 17, 2019 in Nashville. The Patriots won, 22-17. (Ric Tapia via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) jogs into position during the week 14 regular season NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday, Dec. 6, 2018 in Nashville, Tenn. The Titans won the game 30-9. (Paul Spinelli via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) keeps watch during the second half in an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns, Sunday, Sept. 8, 2019, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) intercepts the ball intended for Cleveland Browns wide receiver Jarvis Landry (80) during the second half in an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 8, 2019, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) drops into coverage in action against the Pittsburgh Steelers Saturday August 25, 2018 in Pittsburgh. (Damian Strohmeyer via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) during an NFL regular season game against the Houston Texans on Monday, Nov. 26, 2018 in Houston. The Texans won, 34-17. (Ric Tapia via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) defends during an NFL preseason football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, Aug. 25, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. The Steelers defeated the Titans, 18-6. (Ryan Kang via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) breaks up a mass intended for New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman (11) during an NFL football game, Sunday, November 11, 2018, in Nashville, TN. The Titans won 34-10. (Paul Abell via AP)
Tennessee Titans defensive back Logan Ryan (26) defends against Houston Texans wide receiver Bruce Ellington (12) running a pass route during a regular season Week 4 NFL football game between the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans on Sunday October 1, 2017 in Houston. The Texans beat the Titans 57-14 (Matt Patterson via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) lines up in the secondary during a Week 9 NFL game against the Dallas Cowboys on Monday, Nov. 5, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. The Titans defeated the Cowboys 28-14. (Kevin Terrell via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) lines up in the secondary during a Week 9 NFL game against the Dallas Cowboys on Monday, Nov. 5, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. The Titans defeated the Cowboys 28-14. (Kevin Terrell via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (26) blocks a pass intended for Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams (81) during the first half of an NFL football game at Wembley stadium in London, Sunday, Oct. 21, 2018. (AP Photo/Matt Dunham)
Tennessee Titans defensive back Logan Ryan (26) celebrates after a defensive play during the first half of an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, Sept. 30, 2018 in Nashville, Tenn. The Titans defeated the Eagles 26-23 in overtime. (Perry Knotts via AP)
Tennessee Titans defensive back Logan Ryan (26) during an NFL preseason football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday, Aug. 25, 2018 in Pittsburgh. The Steelers won, 16-6. (Ric Tapia via AP)
Tennessee Titans cornerback Logan Ryan (25) drop into coverage during the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday, Nov. 16, 2017, Pittsburgh. The Steelers defeated the Titans 40-17. (Al Tielemans via AP)
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Nick Gates mentally adjusting to center position
Nick Gates' Wikipedia page offers scant information in its four short paragraphs, but it does include this nugget: "He can play at either tackle or guard positions on the offensive line."
That line must be updated, because when the Giants open their 2020 season two weeks from tonight against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Gates has a chance to be the starting center.
Joe Judge has revealed very little about job competitions in training camp, but he did admit after the team's first scrimmage 10 days ago that the contest at center between Spencer Pulley and Gates is "scratch even."
In one respect, that is a tribute to Gates. Because while Pulley has made all 26 of his career starts at center, Gates never played the position until camp began. In three seasons at the University of Nebraska, he started 10 games at right tackle and the last 25 on the left side. Gates joined the Giants as a rookie free agent in 2018 but missed his entire rookie season after suffering a training camp ankle injury. Last year, he played in all 16 games, starting two at right tackle and one at right guard.
What's been the biggest challenge moving to the middle?
"Honestly, just mentally, getting the playbook, getting in and just knowing what to do with every single front the defense gives us," Gates said today. "Our defense gives us a lot of different things to look at, mix it up a lot. That's probably the biggest thing, but it's good for me to get out there against our defense and see all that. Because we are most likely not going to get this much different stuff in a game when we go to a real live game.
"I think mentally I'm thinking about so much, I don't really think about the physical part, like the technique part and snapping the ball. It's kind of nice to go out there and think and try to do the play. By the time I give the calls, I'm ready to go and I don't have to think about it too much."
Photos: Giants kick off final week of camp
View photos from Monday's training camp practice as the Giants get ready for the season opener.
View photos from Monday's training camp practice as the Giants get ready for the season opener.
TE Kaden Smith
OLB Markus Golden
CB James Bradberry
RB Saquon Barkley
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