Next Gen Stats announces new metrics for 2020 season
The Next Gen Stats team has announced several new, advanced stats for the 2020 NFL season.
Here is a quick look at some of the new metrics to keep an eye on as we approach the start of the regular season.
Expected Rushing Yards:
"On the individual play level, we can estimate how many rushing yards a ball carrier will gain from the moment of the handoff and the likelihood the player gains a first down or scores a touchdown... At the game, season and multi-season level, we can compare a running back's efficiency relative to the rest of the league, find game situations and play characteristics where players excel or struggle, and break down O-line performance and coaching schemes."
"We can analyze speed metrics relative to route types, assess how well a receiver gets open, explore how a defense (or individual defender) performs against specific routes -- the list could go on."
Live Win Probability
The NGS team has developed our own Live Win Probability model that evaluates the likelihood of either team winning at any moment between plays in the game. The model, trained on every historical play in the last 10 seasons, looks at the score differential, down-and-distance, time remaining, timeouts remaining, expected points and team quality. New for the 2020 campaign: Fans will be able to track Live Win Probabilities for every game this season at nextgenstats.nfl.com.
Field Goal Probability (2020 update)
"Last season, we rolled out a Field Goal Probability model to estimate the likelihood of a made field goal, given the distance of the kick, weather and stadium type. The model used logistic regression to predict the probability of a successful field goal.
"This year, we've made updates to the model. Using a modeling technique called ensembling, our new and improved Field Goal Probability model uses a blended estimate of the same logistic regression model used in 2019, with an additional xgboost model (non-linear, tree-based method) that does a better job of predicting longer field goals (55-plus yards) than the logistic regression.
"By controlling for the level of difficulty of each kick, we can better contextualize kicker performance relative to expectations. At the season and multi-season level, the difference between a kicker's actual field goal percentage and expected field goal percentage is equivalent to a measure of field goal percentage over expectation (FGOE)."
Expected Yards After Catch (2020 update)
Our Expected Yards After Catch model, which we originally debuted in 2018, will be replaced with the same modeling structure as the Expected Rushing Yards model. Just like on run plays, the new EYAC model (combined with Completion Probability) will also have the ability to estimate outcome probabilities like first downs and touchdowns, in addition to a single point estimate.
Reports: Giants agree to terms with CB Logan Ryan
The Giants have agreed to terms with two-time Super Bowl champion cornerback and New Jersey native Logan Ryan, according to reports.
The signing is contingent upon Ryan clearing COVID-19 protocols and passing a physical.
Ryan, 5-11 and 195 pounds, is entering his eighth NFL season. He spent his first four years in New England when Joe Judge was the Patriots' special teams assistant coach and then coordinator. Ryan played the past three seasons for the Tennessee Titans.
Ryan has played in 109 career regular-season games with 89 starts and in 15 postseason games in 10 starts. His career totals include 522 tackles (374 solo); 17 interceptions, including one he returned 79 yards for a touchdown; 78 passes defensed; and eight forced fumbles. In the postseason, he has 89 tackles (70 solo), two interceptions and eight passes defensed.
In 2019, Ryan started all of the Titans' 19 games as they advanced to the AFC Championship Game. He led the team in the regular season with 113 tackles (73 solo) and was second with four interceptions and also topped the team in the playoffs with 25 tackles (18 solo) and added a pick.
Ryan played on the Patriots teams that defeated Seattle in Super Bowl XLIX and Atlanta in Super Bowl LI.
He entered the NFL as New England's third-round draft choice (No. 83 overall) in 2013. Ryan joined the Titans as a free agent in 2017.
Ryan was born in Berlin, N.J. and starred at Eastern High School in Vorhees Township in South Jersey, as well as Rutgers University.
Nick Gates mentally adjusting to center position
Nick Gates' Wikipedia page offers scant information in its four short paragraphs, but it does include this nugget: "He can play at either tackle or guard positions on the offensive line."
That line must be updated, because when the Giants open their 2020 season two weeks from tonight against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Gates has a chance to be the starting center.
Joe Judge has revealed very little about job competitions in training camp, but he did admit after the team's first scrimmage 10 days ago that the contest at center between Spencer Pulley and Gates is "scratch even."
In one respect, that is a tribute to Gates. Because while Pulley has made all 26 of his career starts at center, Gates never played the position until camp began. In three seasons at the University of Nebraska, he started 10 games at right tackle and the last 25 on the left side. Gates joined the Giants as a rookie free agent in 2018 but missed his entire rookie season after suffering a training camp ankle injury. Last year, he played in all 16 games, starting two at right tackle and one at right guard.
What's been the biggest challenge moving to the middle?
"Honestly, just mentally, getting the playbook, getting in and just knowing what to do with every single front the defense gives us," Gates said today. "Our defense gives us a lot of different things to look at, mix it up a lot. That's probably the biggest thing, but it's good for me to get out there against our defense and see all that. Because we are most likely not going to get this much different stuff in a game when we go to a real live game.
"I think mentally I'm thinking about so much, I don't really think about the physical part, like the technique part and snapping the ball. It's kind of nice to go out there and think and try to do the play. By the time I give the calls, I'm ready to go and I don't have to think about it too much."
Photos: Giants kick off final week of camp
View photos from Monday's training camp practice as the Giants get ready for the season opener.