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Fact or Fiction: Way-too-early stat predictions (defense)

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The Giants.com crew is presented with four statements and must decide whether they are Fact or Fiction.

OLB Brian Burns will repeat as the team sack leader.

John Schmeelk: Fiction - Before I explain why I am going with fiction here, let me unequivocally state I believe Burns is the best edge player on the Giants. He stops the run, rushes the passer well, can drop into coverage, plays with an unrelenting motor, and is a fantastic leader of the defense. But I do believe Abdul Carter is going to be the more productive pass rusher this season. Of players with at least 100 pass rush snaps last year, Abdul Carter finished 44th in pressure rate (14.4%) and 37th in win rate (15.2%), while Brian Burns finished 183rd in win rate (7.9%) and 87th in pressure rate (12.1%), according to Pro Football Focus. Carter finished 16th in the league in total pressures (73), while Burns finished 36th with 57. Sacks fluctuate year to year, while pressures are a more reliable and consistent metric to predict pass rush ability. I also expect the Giants will try to move Carter around more often and scheme up pressure opportunities for him by letting him attack interior linemen one on one. I think Carter leads the team in sacks as more of his pressures hit home this year than last.

Matt Citak: Fiction – Burns is coming off a career year in which he ranked second in the NFL with 16.5 sacks, the highest single-season total of his seven years in the league. I believe he will hit the double-digit sack mark again, but I agree with John that Carter will lead the team in sacks this season. The 22-year-old edge rusher ended the season strong with at least a half-sack in four consecutive games, along with no fewer than four pressures in each of the final five games. Over that final five-game span, Carter accumulated 28 of his pressures on the season. If he can carry over that momentum to 2026, Carter's sack total should increase by a significant margin.

Rookie LB Arvell Reese will be second on the team in tackles for loss.

John Schmeelk: Fiction - The fundamental problem with this statement is that sacks count as tackles for loss. I believe there should be a separate stat for rush or reception tackles for loss, but alas, that stat does not exist. Last year, if you remove sacks, Dru Phillips actually led the Giants in tackles for loss with nine. Those tackles came not only on run plays, but even more frequently on screens and those quick hitters to wide receivers on the perimeter. He was excellent at crashing the line of scrimmage and making plays behind it on those quick passes. Since Reese will too often line up behind the defensive line, I doubt he will be the man to lead the team in this category, especially since it includes sacks. I'll guess Brian Burns here though it could easily be Abdul Carter.

Matt Citak: Fact – I get what John is saying about sacks counting towards tackles for loss, but I still think Reese can get there. The rookie linebacker was all over the field during spring practices as he got into the backfield on a consistent basis while also stopping several run screens behind the line of scrimmage. Reese and Edmunds are likely going to lead the team in snaps, assuming they stay healthy, and considering Reese's ability to rush the quarterback, I think he's going to rack up the tackles for loss in a variety of ways.

Get ready for the 2026 season with photos from Media Day at the Quest Diagnostics Training Center.

A safety will lead the team in interceptions.

John Schmeelk: Fact - One thing I was told by a Giants safety during my interviews with them earlier in June is that they felt their eyes will be on the quarterback more in Dennard Wilson's system than at any other time in their tenure with the Giants. They will have assignments and responsibilities on every play, but once those assignments are fulfilled they will have the freedom to go make plays on the ball. I expect we will see a lot of that this season and for the safeties to be ball hawks that take the football away. I expect Tyler Nubin to get the first interception of his NFL career, and then some more on top of that.

Matt Citak: Fact – The most likely non-safety candidate to lead the team in interceptions is Paulson Adebo, who registered 10 picks in 52 games with the Saints. The veteran had just one interception last year, and I expect that number to go up in 2026. But I think Tyler Nubin is going to lead the team in interceptions this season. Nubin had 13 interceptions over his final four seasons at Minnesota, including 12 from 2021-2023. He hasn't had one in the NFL yet and he is long overdue, especially with Dennard Wilson now coaching the defense.

Darius Alexander will lead the Giants' interior defensive linemen in snaps this season.

John Schmeelk: Fiction - I think there's a chance this ends up being true, but Alexander needs to show it once the pads come on. I do think he has the potential to be a three down player with the size and strength to stop the run to go along with the athleticism to be a penetrating pass rusher. He just has to prove he can do both those things in game situations.

Matt Citak: Fact – Alexander will need to develop throughout the season in order for this to come to fruition. But considering his competition to lead the interior defensive linemen in snaps, I'm going with the younger guy. D.J. Reader will be 32 years old when the season starts while Shelby Harris will be 34. Over the last three seasons, neither veteran has reached 60 percent of defensive snaps played. Given their age, there is a decent chance that both Reader and Harris will be around the 50 percent mark in snaps played, give or take a little, which should give Alexander an opportunity to earn himself a solid role on the defensive line. This is more of a projection, but given the coaches the Giants have on the defensive side of the ball, I think Alexander takes a step this season.

View photos of the New York Giants' 2026 roster as it currently stands.

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Giants announce 2026 open training camp dates

New York Giants 2026 Training Camp, presented by Ford, will be held at The Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia and will feature six practices free and open to the public.

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