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Fact or Fiction: Way-too-early stat predictions (offense)

FACT-OR-FICTION-OFFENSE

The Giants.com crew is presented with four statements and must decide whether they are Fact or Fiction.

The Giants will have three players break 1,000 yards from scrimmage.

John Schmeelk: Fiction – For this to hit, two things need to happen. First, the Giants need to have a 1,000-yard wide receiver. Only about half the teams in the NFL last year had one, including the Giants, thanks to Wan'Dale Robinson's breakout campaign. If Malik Nabers plays at least 15 games, I think the Giants check this box. The Giants will also require one running back to hit 1,000 yards from scrimmage, which I think is likely. Can they get a second running back or a second receiver to hit 1,000? It's possible, but I don't think it is likely. If the Giants do achieve this, it will be a huge sign their offense is where it needs to be for the team to win a lot of games this season.

Dan Salomone: Fact – For these, I like to start with a reference point. Last season, 43 different players reached 1,000 yards from scrimmage. Ten teams – Giants, Colts, Seahawks, Rams, Ravens, Bengals, Panthers, Steelers, Cardinals, Patriots – had two players hit 1,000. Furthermore, three teams had three players reach quadruple digits:

Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams

Eagles: Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown

Cowboys: George Pickens, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb

I'll be the lone one saying "fact" here, but it's not out of the question by any means, especially in a 17-game season. The backfield is what could make this possible. Tyrone Tracy Jr. has reached 1,000 yards from scrimmage in each of his first two seasons. Cam Skattebo was well on his way until he got injured.

Matt Citak: Fiction – While we wait to see when Malik Nabers makes his full return, I think the Giants end up with two players with 1,000+ yards from scrimmage, not three. Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Wan'Dale Robinson both hit that mark last year, and it's fair to say that if Skattebo stayed healthy all year, they might have had three. But until Nabers is back to 100 percent, the passing game is likely going to be more spread out. If Isaiah Likely ends up being the top option in the passing game all season, then the Giants could get three players with 1,000+ yards. But until we see more of what Likely's role in the offense is going to be, I'm going to lean towards the conservative side here.

The Giants will exceed their 2025 total of 22 rushing touchdowns.

John Schmeelk: Fact – This is an easy one. John Harbaugh wants to be a physical team that runs the ball. This will be especially true in the red zone. Derrick Henry had 16 touchdowns last year. The Giants also have a running quarterback in Jaxson Dart that should get some rushing touchdowns. Patrick Ricard should get some rushing touchdowns too.

Dan Salomone: Fact – Always take the over when it comes to John Harbaugh and rushing. For his entire tenure in Baltimore from 2008 through 2025, the Ravens were No. 1 in rushing yards and yards per carry, No. 3 in rushing touchdowns, and No. 6 in points per game. The only hesitation hear would be the historic nature of the 22 touchdowns, which got lost in a down season. They were the third-most in franchise history. It's not an easy feat.

Matt Citak: Fact – We know the offense on a John Harbaugh-led team is going to feature a strong run game, and the moves made this offseason support that notion. The additions of Sisi Mauigoa and Patrick Ricard should help elevate the run game in a big way, not to mention the return of a healthy Skattebo. Jaxson Dart may not have another nine rushing touchdowns this season, but between him, Skattebo, Tracy, Ricard and Devin Singletary, I believe they will beat last year's mark of 22 rushing scores.

View photos of the New York Giants' 2026 roster as it currently stands.

A player who was not on the Giants' 2025 roster will lead them in touchdown catches this season.

John Schmeelk: Fact – My three players most likely to lead the Giants in touchdown catches are Malik Nabers, Isaiah Likely, and Darnell Mooney. You can also throw in Malachi Fields, Darius Slayton, and Theo Johnson into the conversation. Two of the three players in the first group are newcomers, and with the unknown surrounding Nabers, I think it is far more likely the Giants' leader in receiving touchdowns is a newcomer rather than a returning player.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – Even if Malik Nabers takes some time to get going, he's still Malik Nabers. He will be featured heavily and have plenty of opportunities to find the end zone.

Matt Citak: Fact – As mentioned above, given Nabers' recovery from last year's injury, there is a good chance that Likely leads the team in targets, at least towards the start of the season. Likely was brought in to play a big role in the passing game, especially in the red zone. Theo Johnson led the team in touchdown catches last year, so we have already seen that Jaxson Dart likes throwing to his tight ends in the red zone. Likely, coming in at 6-foot-4, provides Dart with another big target when the offense gets close to the goal line. The new tight end is my candidate to lead the team in touchdown catches in 2026.

Jaxson Dart will lead the team in rushing touchdowns again.

John Schmeelk: Fiction – I will point back to the "Derrick Henry had 16 touchdowns" sign. Dart will get his rushing touchdowns too, but Lamar Jackson has not had more than 5 rushing touchdowns since 2020. The five Patrick Mahomes had in 2025 is the most he ever had, and he only had more than two in one other season. The Giants will run it in a bunch, but the running backs will be the focus of those efforts.

Dan Salomone: Fact – Jaxson Dart did things no other quarterback had ever done before on the ground, and that wasn't limited to just rookie or franchise records. Last season, Dart became the first quarterback in NFL history to score a rushing touchdown in five straight games. You don't do that by accident.

Matt Citak: Fiction – Dart finished his first campaign with nine rushing touchdowns in 12 starts, an impressive number for any quarterback, let alone a rookie. But in just eight games (five starts), Cam Skattebo racked up five rushing touchdowns, not to mention another two through the air. His power style of running makes him the easy favorite to lead the team in rushing touchdowns, especially with Ricard leading the way for him. It wouldn't surprise me to see Skattebo easily reach the double-digit mark in rushing touchdowns this season.

Click through every 1,000-yard receiving season in Giants history.

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