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Fact or Fiction: Keys to the game, stat predictions

ABDUL-CARTER-FACT-OR-FICTION

The Giants.com crew is presented with four statements and must decide whether they are Fact or Fiction.

Abdul Carter will have a sack in his return to his hometown.

John Schmeelk: Fact – I imagine for some Giants fans it is disappointing and maybe even concerning that the third overall pick in the NFL only has a half-sack through the first seven games of his career. I am here to assure those fans that there is nothing to worry about. Despite a lack of sacks, Carter has still been disruptive. He actually has a higher pressure rate and pass rush win rate than Brian Burns, according to Pro Football Focus, despite the differential in total sacks. It won't be long before some of those pressures and eight quarterback hits turn into sacks.

Dan Salomone: Fact – Sacks come in bunches, which means droughts do too. What would be seven weeks without at least a half-sack seems too long for the third overall pick. He breaks through in Pennsylvania, where he was the 15th Unanimous All-American in Penn State history.

Matt Citak: Fact – While he has yet to record a full sack in the NFL, Carter has gotten close on numerous occasions. His 29 pressures lead all rookies and rank eighth overall in the NFL, while his 19 quick pressures are the most in the league. I would expect the rookie to come into this game fired up to play in front of his friends and family. Jalen Hurts has been sacked 12 times over the last three games. Carter will get his first full sack this weekend.

Cam Skattebo will have at least 90 yards from scrimmage for the sixth consecutive game.

John Schmeelk: Fact – The Eagles rank 23rd in defensive rush DVOA and 19th in EPA allowed per rush. Skattebo went for a season-high 98 rushing yards on 19 carries against them two weeks ago on 5.2 yards per carry. Vic Fangio likes to play light boxes against the run and show two safeties deep pre-snap, which should give teams an advantage running the ball against his defenses. His defenses are also designed to prevent passes down the field, which means there could be a number of check-down opportunities in the pass game.

Dan Salomone: Fact – Jaxson Dart's dual-threat ability opens things up for Cam Skattebo, and vice versa. We saw the latter's presence in the pass game tick back up last week in Denver, where he showed great patience and vision on a catch-and-run for his first receiving touchdown.

Matt Citak: Fact – Skattebo has become a focal point of the offense, both on the ground and through the air. Since he saw his playing time increase significantly in Week 3, the rookie back has seen six or more targets in three of five games. After Skattebo's 110-yard, three-touchdown game in Week 6, I expect the Eagles to key in on him on Sunday. While they may contain him on the ground, I think Skattebo makes a big impact in the passing game and gets to 90 yards from scrimmage for the sixth straight week.

See who led the Giants in sacks each season since it became an official statistic in 1982.

The biggest key in the first meeting with the Eagles was the success on third down, offensively and defensively.

John Schmeelk: Fact – I will go a step further and say the Giants played a much better version of complementary football against the Eagles, and won situationally almost across the board. They prevented the Eagles from scoring a touchdown on one of their red zone opportunities and scored on all three of their own. The Giants also won the turnover battle 2-0, forcing Jalen Hurts' first interception of the year. Finally, they dominated on third down. Philadelphia was not much better last week on third downs, converting only three of their 10 attempts, while Minnesota converted seven of their 15.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. The Giants are 2-0 when they have a positive turnover differential and 0-5 when they do not. The Eagles had two giveaways against the Giants in their first meeting. In their six other games, they turned the ball over just once. Week 6 included Jalen Hurts' only interception of the season. The Super Bowl LIX MVP had gone 304 consecutive attempts without an interception, which was the longest active streak in the league. Hurts was only the 10th quarterback ever to throw at least 300 consecutive passes without an interception, and the first in Eagles history, according to NFL Research.

Matt Citak: Fact – The Giants went 11-for-16 on third down and held the Eagles to just one conversion on nine third down attempts. While the Giants winning the turnover battle 2-0 also played a key role, this performance on third down made the biggest difference. On third downs, Jaxson Dart has converted a first down at the third-highest rate (48.8 percent) and averaged the second-most EPA per drop back (0.44) in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. If the Giants can put together a similar performance on third down this weekend, they will have a good chance at sweeping the season series against the division rival.

Giants tight ends will combine for more than 100 receiving yards for the second straight week.

John Schmeelk: Fiction – The Giants combining for over 100 yards last week required an historic day with both players catching 40-yard passes for touchdowns, one of which wasn't even intended for Theo Johnson that he caught on a deflection. Since 2000, no other tight end duo caught 40-yard touchdown passes in the same game. I expect both players to be targets often in this game, but likely not for big plays down the field. With the Eagles' issues at their second cornerback spot, I expect this to be more of a wide receiver game for the Giants offense.

Dan Salomone: Fact – After all, it's National Tight Ends Day this Sunday. The Giants (Theo Johnson and Daniel Bellinger) and Browns (Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku) are the only two teams in the league with two tight ends ranking in the top 30 in receiving yards at the position. Johnson is second only to Wan'Dale Robinson for the most snaps on offense for the Giants, other than offensive linemen. Bellinger, meanwhile, is coming off a career-high 88 yards. They have found something at the position both out of necessity with the injuries at wide receiver and because of their ensuing production.

Matt Citak: Fiction – The Eagles enter this matchup as one of the best defenses against tight ends this season. Philadelphia has allowed just 220 receiving yards to tight ends through the first seven games of the season, which ranks as the third-lowest in the NFL, while their 28 receptions to the position are sixth-fewest. Theo Johnson caught just two passes for 27 yards in the first meeting between the two teams, while Daniel Bellinger was held without a catch. Their numbers might be better than that in Week 8, but I don't think they reach 100 yards.

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