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Fact or Fiction: Week 17 stat predictions

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The Giants.com crew is presented with four statements and must decide whether they are Fact or Fiction.

Limiting Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty is the Giants' top priority this week.

John Schmeelk: Fiction - I was locked and loaded to write about Brock Bowers here and how he is the best tight end in the NFL even if the numbers might not show it right now, but then the Raiders put him on injured reserve Wednesday morning. But I can't still go with "fact" here. Why? Despite what Jeanty did last week, the Raiders have the worst running game in football. They rank last in running DVOA, EPA per run, success rate, rush yards per game, rush yards per play, and rushes of 10+ yards. Maxx Crosby, on the other hand, is still one of the best edge rushers in the NFL and the effort level he plays with will not wane, even with the Raiders only having 2 wins through 15 games. Especially with the injury to Andrew Thomas, slowing down Crosby will be mission number one.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – With the way it looked last week, getting Jaxson Dart and the offense back on track is the priority. That starts up front, where the Giants were missing 60 percent of their starting offensive line by the end of the game. Dart was sacked five times while the offense netted just 13 passing yards.

Matt Citak: Fact – Even before the news of the Raiders placing Brock Bowers on injured reserve came out, my answer would have been fact here. Jeanty is coming off his best overall performance of the season with 188 total yards of offense, an average of 5.3 yards per carry, and two touchdowns, including an impressive 60-yard touchdown reception. While the Raiders' O-line still struggles to create running lanes for him, the rookie back has still found a way to shine this season. Considering the Giants' struggles at slowing down the run, containing Jeanty has to be the top priority this week.

WR Wan'Dale Robinson (906) and RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. (812) will both reach 1,000 yards from scrimmage with two games to go.

John Schmeelk: Fact - Tyrone Tracy jr. has been playing excellent football, with 70 or more scrimmage yards in five of his last six games, including at least 130 in back-to-back weeks against the Packers and Lions. The only game he failed to reach 70 yards was the one he left early with a hip injury. I expect him to be heavily involved against two weaker defenses in the Raiders and Cowboys. It will be tough to get to 188 yards over two weeks, but I think he does it late against Dallas in Week 18. Robinson has a much easier path, just needing 94 yards over two weeks.

Dan Salomone: Fact – They would be two bright spots in an otherwise difficult season. That would mean the first for Robinson while Tracy could start his career with back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns. Who knows, maybe the former gets there with a run and the other with a catch?

Matt Citak: Fact – Robinson has an easier road to 1,000 as he sits just 92 total yards shy. Tracy has more of an uphill battle to get there, but with how he's performed over the last six weeks, I think he can get there. Tracy will need to average 94 yards from scrimmage over the next two weeks to reach 1,000 yards. Over his last four full games, he's topped 94 yards three of four times, including two games with 130 or more yards of offense. It won't happen until Week 18, but both Tracy and Robinson will hit the 1,000-yard mark.

View rare photos of the history between the Giants and Raiders.

OLB Abdul Carter will have a sack for the fourth consecutive game.

John Schmeelk: Fact - The Giants have found a nice niche for Abdul Carter, lining him up as a stand-up rusher over the center behind a four-man front. It has created one-on-one rush opportunities against opposing centers and guards who are completely ill-equipped to deal with his quickness. He has managed a number of quick wins, often using spin moves, and giving him a clear path to the quarterback. I will not bet on the Raiders solving that equation this week.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – I'm doubling down on last week, when I was wrong in saying "fiction" out of respect for the difficult nature of getting three in a row. Four is even harder, so I'll go "fiction" here just for that reason. I'm sure I'll be wrong again.

Matt Citak: Fact – Carter has been on a tear since his first quarter benching in Week 13. Over the last month, the rookie outside linebacker is Pro Football Focus' second-highest ranked pass rusher in the league. He's getting after the quarterback on a consistent basis, and it's leading to strong results in the box score. No quarterback has been sacked more than Geno Smith this season, while the Raiders' 57 total sacks allowed is one shy of the Jets for the most in the NFL. Carter will continue his dominant end of the season with another sack on Sunday.

The NFC is better than the AFC this season.

John Schmeelk: Fact - Before the season, I would have answered this differently, mostly because of the group of quarterbacks sitting on top of the AFC - Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert, just to name a few. Whether due to injury or the rosters around a lot of those quarterbacks not meeting expectations, only two of those quarterbacks (Allen and Herbert) are likely to make the playoffs. Young quarterbacks like Drake Maye, Trevor Lawrence, and Bo Nix (supported by strong supporting casts) have stepped in to fill the void, but the rosters do not measure up to teams like the Rams, Seahawks, Eagles, and Packers in the NFC.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – Even with Kansas City out of the playoff picture for the first time since 2014, the AFC is a gauntlet of teams nobody wants to play late in the season. The NFC West alone makes this a conversation for that conference, but if you take the top two teams from each division, it is more spread out in the AFC.

Matt Citak: Fact – It's been a weird season across the NFL. Heading into Week 17, the Chiefs and Ravens both have below .500 records, the AFC South has three teams over .500, and the NFC West has three teams with double-digit wins. Up is down, left is right, and for the first time in a while, the NFC seems to be stronger than the AFC. With the regular season nearing its end, there is no clear favorite to win or even make the Super Bowl. Everything is up for grabs, but I still lean towards the NFC over the AFC.

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