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Fact or Fiction: Stat predictions, young QB projections

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The Giants.com crew is presented with four statements and must decide whether they are Fact or Fiction.

The second year for a starting quarterback is more difficult than the rookie campaign.

John Schmeelk: Fiction – I started writing this as a "fact" but then checked myself. There are some things that are more difficult about a quarterback's second season. Teams go to work on what you did well as a rookie and shut it down, forcing you to improve in other areas. More might get put on a second-year quarterback's plate in terms of checks and reading defenses, which makes their process tougher. I don't think, however, that makes it more difficult than a quarterback's rookie season where they are thrown onto a professional team in May, and they have to learn an entirely new offense that looks nothing like what they did in college. Neither year is easy, but the rookie season is still tougher.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – I'm with Schmeelk. There is definitely a case for "fact" here, but you can't overlook how grueling the rookie season can be for quarterbacks. It is a marathon from their final college season to a bowl game, all-star game, combine prep, draft prep, pro days, official visits, the combine itself, the draft itself, rookie minicamp, OTAs, minicamp with the veterans, training camp with the veterans, and preseason. All of this leads into the season against grown men who are paid to stop you physically and mentally. Then you might not have a break until Week 14, like Dart and the Giants this year.

Matt Citak: Fiction – While many people believe the "sophomore slump" is a real thing, numbers show that is not the case. According to The Ringer, second-year quarterbacks on average actually add 22.8 EPA to their rookie totals. The instances of QBs seeing a dip in production from Year 1 to Year 2 typically come after outstanding rookie campaigns, when it is difficult to reproduce the numbers. But statistics show that veteran quarterbacks also see a similar drop in production following a great season. Other teams have more tape to study of a second-year QB, but on the flip side, the QB also has more experience to lean on.

Jaxson Dart will have one rushing and one passing touchdown on Sunday.

John Schmeelk: Fiction – The Giants should score plenty of touchdowns on Sunday, given the Commanders allow the fifth-most points per game in the league (27.2) and have allowed at least 25 points in seven of their last eight games. I'm positive Dart will throw for one, but I question whether Kafka will call a designed run in a goal-to-go situation to get him a rushing score. It is more than possible that Dart just runs it in himself on a scramble given his aggressive mindset, but I'll go out on a limb and say he does not get a rushing score.

Dan Salomone: Fact – He has one of each in five games this season, second only to Josh Allen's seven entering Week 15. There could be some snow on Sunday, and the rookie could take advantage of the slipping and sliding. Through the air, the Commanders allow a league-high 109.7 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks.

Matt Citak: Fiction – Dart will account for multiple touchdowns against the Commanders on Sunday, but I think they will all come through the air. Washington's defense has struggled this season, but the pass defense ranks among the worst in the league. They have surrendered 26 passing touchdowns through 13 games, which comes out to a clean 2.0 per game. The rookie quarterback will have at least that many touchdowns through the air this week (if not more).

See the top photos from practice as the Giants prepare for their Week 15 matchup against the Commanders.

Brian Burns will have multiple sacks for the second time against the Commanders this season.

John Schmeelk: Fact – We have seen Abdul Carter line up more over the left tackle than the right tackle in recent weeks, which means he will likely draw more of Laremy Tunsil in this game. That means Burns will draw Josh Conerly Jr. on the left side of the defense. Conerly has a bright future, but he has struggled moving to the right side as rookie, though he has played better in recent weeks. Burns will likely see chips and other double teams, but I think he will figure out a way to get 1.5 sacks.

Dan Salomone: Fact – Burns has gone two consecutive games without a sack for the first time this season. But I think that only means he is due, even though Marcus Mariota has not been sacked more than twice in six starts this season. Burns is on pace for 17.0 sacks, which has been accomplished only three times in Giants history. Michael Strahan shares the NFL record with 22.5 in 2001 and recorded 18.5 in 2003. Lawrence Taylor had 20.5 in 1986.

Matt Citak: Fiction – It is tough to predict multiple sacks for any player in a single game. While Burns has done it on four occasions this season, it might be tough for him to accomplish the feat this week. As the primary left edge, Burns will likely see a lot of right tackle Josh Conerly Jr. Now this is an easier matchup than Abdul Carter will face on the other side against left tackle Laremy Tunsil, but Conerly has played a lot better following a rough start to the season. After being credited with four sacks and 11 total pressures allowed in his first two games, the rookie tackle has given up just two sacks and 24 pressures in the 11 games since, according to Pro Football Focus. Burns could get through for one sack, but I'm not sure he gets a second one.

Devin Singletary will score his fourth touchdown in a four-game span.

John Schmeelk: Fact – The Commanders rank 27th in the NFL in red zone touchdown rate allowed. Even though they are better in goal-to-go situations, I expect the Giants to get multiple shots near the end zone. I'm not sure Dart will get a ton of designed runs in those spots, and with Singletary surpassing Tyrone Tracy Jr. in goal-to-go touches, it is likely Singletary gets a score this week.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – Tyrone Tracy Jr. has practiced fully since leaving the Monday night game with a hip injury, and Bobby Wagner is still going to be on the other side on Sunday. A lot has changed since Week 1, but the Giants rushed for just 74 yards in their first game against the Commanders. The Giants are also 29th in converting red zone trips into touchdowns. They might have to strike before getting inside the 20.

Matt Citak: Fact – The veteran had seemingly taken over as the team's goal line back, even before Tracy left the Week 13 matchup in Foxborough with a hip injury. He's seen double-digit touches in every game since Cam Skattebo was lost for the season, so I expect the same this Sunday. If the Giants get close to the end zone, there's a good chance the ball is going to Singletary. It'll be up to him to fight his way across the goal line.

See who led the Giants in sacks each season since it became an official statistic in 1982.

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