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Fact or Fiction: Keys to the game & stat predictions

FACT-OR-FICTION

The Broncos have the best defense that the Giants face all season.

John Schmeelk: Fact – According to Sumer Sports, the Broncos' defense leads the NFL in EPA allowed per play and success rate. They lag slightly behind in defensive DVOA, with the only other team on the Giants' schedule ahead of them being the Green Bay Packers. But given the Broncos' league-leading 30 sacks, a Defensive Player of the Year in the secondary in Patrick Surtain II, and a league-low 5.3 percent explosive play rate, I would rank them ahead of the Packers this season. This will be Jaxson Dart's biggest test of the season on Sunday.

Dan Salomone: Fact – Situational football is the hallmark of great defenses, and no one is doing that better than Denver. As Brian Daboll said, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is "really coaching incredible football right now." He also has great players to put in the right positions to make plays. Add in a tough road environment mixed with the altitude, and Sunday will be a tall task for the Giants. Center John Michael Schmitz being ruled out only complicates matters.

Matt Citak: Fact – Take your pick from all of the impressive stats. The unit ranks second in the league in both points and yards allowed, first in net yards allowed per pass attempt, and first in rushing touchdowns allowed, just to name a few. Even more impressive are Denver's stats in key situations, as the Broncos rank first in the NFL in third down defense, fourth down defense and red zone defense. The Broncos are elite against both the pass and run. It doesn't matter what way you look at it, Sunday is going to be a tough challenge for the Giants' offense.

RB Cam Skattebo will score a touchdown again on Sunday.

John Schmeelk: Fact – Sure, why not? It's difficult to predict touchdowns in any given week, but given how much Cam Skattebo has been used in the red zone since his emergence as the team's primary back, this is a decent guess. The Giants' red zone offense has gotten significantly better as Skattebo and Dart have grown in their roles. Running the ball well is key to a good red zone offense, and both those young players have impacted the game in that area.

Dan Salomone: Fact – But it won't be rushing. All five of his touchdowns so far have been on the ground, but he is also a weapon catching the ball. Don't forget he has been known to throw a pass or two.

Matt Citak: Fiction – As mentioned above, the Broncos are tied with three other teams for the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed this season with two. If the Giants get the ball close to the goal line, chances are Skattebo is going to get an opportunity to punch it in. But with Denver also having the No. 1 red zone defense, the Giants might have to get creative near the end zone, maybe with something like a jet sweep to Wan'Dale Robinson or a play-action bootleg with Jaxson Dart. The Broncos are talented up front, and after Skattebo's big outing against the Eagles, Denver's defensive line will likely key in on the rookie back.

See the top photos from practice as the Giants prepare for their Week 7 matchup against the Broncos.

Protecting Jaxson Dart is the Giants' No. 1 priority in Denver.

John Schmeelk: Fiction – If the Giants become a one-dimensional passing team on Sunday, things probably won't go well. That would mean they were not able to protect Jaxson Dart against a front with talented individual pass rushers that also blitzes more than 30 percent of the time. The best way they can protect Dart is by getting a lead and running the ball successfully to keep their rookie quarterback out of situations where he is in "must-pass" situations against a Broncos pass defense that might be the best in the NFL. Get a lead and run the ball.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – The Giants are 2-0 when they have a positive turnover differential and 0-4 when they do not. Dart could be 3-0 as a starter if the Giants didn't turn the ball over on five consecutive possessions in New Orleans. If they play clean football, they will be in it until the end.

Matt Citak: Fact – Through six games, the Broncos have racked up 30 sacks, 10 more than any other team. They had nine sacks last week against the Jets, an outing in which they had Justin Fields running all game. Denver registered a 55.2 pressure rate on Fields' 29 drop-backs, their highest pressure rate of the season, which led to a whopping 31.0 percent sack rate. The offensive line has done a good job of protecting Dart thus far, as the rookie quarterback has faced pressure on only 31.5 percent of his drop backs, the 12th-lowest rate among qualified quarterbacks. But with the way they are playing, this Broncos pass rush is currently in a league of its own. Protecting Dart has to be the No. 1 priority on Sunday.

WR Wan'Dale Robinson will lead the Giants in targets, receptions, and receiving yards against the Broncos.

John Schmeelk: Fiction – Robinson is likely to see a fair amount of Patrick Surtain II when he lines up outside on Sunday. Inside, the matchup will be slightly better against the likes of Ja'Quan McMillan and Jahdae Barron, but I still think this will be more of a Theo Johnson game. The Broncos play a fair amount of man-to-man, and if the Giants can get him one-on-one matchups against linebackers, it could be the most advantageous one on the field for Dart to attack.

Dan Salomone: Fact – Robinson is the go-to target on third down, which makes him likely to get this triple crown. He leads the NFL since the start of last season with 46 catches on third down. Denver's Courtland is second with 43.

Matt Citak: Fiction – Even with Robinson leading the team in receptions and receiving yards last week, Lil'Jordan Humphrey actually finished with the most targets. It's hard for a wide receiver not named Malik Nabers to lead the team in all three categories, especially in this matchup. Robinson lines up primarily in the slot, which means he should avoid Pat Surtain II for a lot of the game, which could lead to a bigger performance from him than we might see from the outside receivers. But one area in which the Broncos' defense has had some struggles in is limiting running backs in the passing game, as their 236 receiving yards to running backs are the ninth-most in the NFL. There could be an opportunity for Cam Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy Jr. to make an impact catching passes out of the backfield against a tough Denver defense.

View rare photos of the history between the New York Giants and Denver Broncos.

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