Presented by

Fact or Fiction: Week 3 keys & predictions

Sep 19, 2025 at 11:08 AM

by John Schmeelk, Dan Salomone & Matt Citak

The Giants.com crew is presented with four statements and must decide whether they are Fact or Fiction.

The No. 1 key for Sunday night is to prevent QB Patrick Mahomes from making things happen with his legs.

John Schmeelk: Fiction – This game will be all about how the Giants handle the Chiefs' league-high 48.5 percent blitz rate. Last week against the Eagles, the Chiefs blitzed more than they had in any game in the Steve Spagnuolo era, sending extra rushers 64 percent of the time per Next Gen Stats. When he has been pressured this year, Russell Wilson has completed only 40.7 percent of his passes with a 24.3% success rate per Next Gen Stats. It should be noted that, despite all the blitzing, the Chiefs have only the 24^th-best pressure rate in the league. The Giants need to do a good job of picking up those blitzes and Wilson needs to handle the pressure well if the offense is going to score enough points to win the game.

Dan Salomone: Fact – I don't think it's by design, but both teams enter Sunday night with their quarterbacks leading them in rushing. It is even more dramatic for Kansas City. Mahomes has more rushing yards (123) than the rest of the team combined (96). But it's not just about the vertical yardage; it's about defending sideline to sideline. The high-octane offenses feature quarterbacks who can make loose plays, and Mahomes is one of the best ever to do it. Meanwhile, the Giants have been dealing with injuries at linebacker. A close second on the list of priorities is finishing off drives in the red zone.

Matt Citak: Fiction – One of the biggest strengths of Mahomes' game is his ability to make things happen with his legs, and I expect him to continue to do so Sunday. To me, the No. 1 key will be to pressure Mahomes as much as possible. As talented as he is, Mahomes has struggled when pressured. He's completed just six of 18 passes for 85 yards, one touchdown and one interception when blitzed. His 44.9 passer rating against the blitz ranks as the fourth-lowest in the NFL, while his 33.3 completion percentage ranks as the second-lowest. If the Giants can get after Mahomes, it might lead to some runs for the talented QB. But if it forces him to get rid of the ball quicker than he wants, that would be a big win for the Giants defense.

WR Malik Nabers will have at least 100 receiving yards for the second consecutive game.

John Schmeelk: Fiction – This will come down to whether or not Nabers will get that one big completion, possibly off one of those frequent Spagnuolo blitzes. Trent McDuffie is the Chiefs' top cornerback and he is an excellent player capable of following someone into the slot and outside. It would not shock me if he shadowed Nabers for much of this game. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs play some softer zones behind their blitzes to prevent Wilson from trying to go over the top to beat them.

Dan Salomone: Fact – In his first and only primetime home game so far, Nabers posted a career-high 12 catches that he turned into 115 yards. The offense unlocked something last week, and Nabers and Russell Wilson have the combination.

Matt Citak: Fiction – While Nabers easily topped this number last week, the Chiefs defense is a lot better than the Cowboys defense. I expect Nabers to see a lot of Trent McDuffie in this game, which is far from an easy matchup. Kansas City has struggled to slow down slot receivers this season, so I expect Wan'Dale Robinson to have another big game (more on that in a minute). Nabers will make an impact Sunday night, and he has a good chance of finding the end zone, but topping the 100-yard mark again will be a tall task.

1 / 43