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Fact or Fiction: Sunday stat predictions & key matchups

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The Giants.com crew is presented with four statements and must decide whether they are Fact or Fiction.

Giants OLB Brian Burns vs. Chargers LT Joe Alt is the individual matchup to watch.

John Schmeelk: Fact – Brian Burns is playing out of his mind this season. He has been a consistent threat with 15 total pressures, just three off the league lead (Aidan Hutchinson and Micah Parsons), according to Pro Football Focus. He is doing it despite facing constant chips against Dallas in Week 2 and multiple bodies against the Commanders and Chiefs on many of his pass-rushing snaps. He is also playing the run well and has flashed as a zone dropper in coverage. His motor has been running hot all season, with two of his three sacks coming from the type of extra effort we have seen from him all offseason. Joe Alt, meanwhile, has seamlessly taken over for Rashawn Slater in his second season, allowing only four pressures, including one sack, according to PFF. I think Burns will get a chance to work against Alt on an island in this game since the Chargers might have to help backup offensive linemen elsewhere. If he can consistently win that one-on-one matchup the Chargers will be put in a very difficult position with their pass protection.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – Whether he was about to make his first or 200th start, Jaxson Dart would need to know where perennial All-Pro safety Derwin James Jr. is on every play. But because he is doing the former, it goes double for the rookie quarterback. James has left an impression on Daboll going back to 2017 in their SEC days. You can be sure he's passing that along to Dart.

Matt Citak: Fact – There are plenty of exciting matchups in this game, but this one tops the list. Burns is off to a dominant start with four sacks in three games, while Alt has surrendered only three total pressures so far this season. Alt is quickly becoming one of the top offensive linemen in the NFL, while Burns seems to have taken his game to another level this season. Get your popcorn ready for this one.

Rookie RB Cam Skattebo will have more receiving yards than rushing yards on Sunday.

John Schmeelk: Fiction – The Chargers' rush defense is eighth in the league, allowing only 94.7 yards per game. But when you dive into the numbers, it doesn't look quite as good. Their pass DVOA ranks fifth, but against the run, they are 16th. Their pass defense is also better in terms of success rate and EPA allowed. The Chargers play a lot of 2-high coverages and a lot of zone. There should be light boxes the Giants can take advantage of if their offensive line blocks a very physical and powerful Chargers defensive front. It should also be noted that those 2-high zones also lend themselves to lots of check-downs, so Skattebo might get plenty of work in the pass game, too.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – The Chargers have given up just 60 receiving yards to running backs this season, with 17 being the highest in a game (Raiders' Dylan Laube). Dart's very first NFL play was a handoff to Skattebo, who took it for 24 yards and then ran in a touchdown on the next snap.

Matt Citak: Fiction – While the Chargers' run defense is in the top 10, the numbers are a bit misleading. Los Angeles has jumped out to leads each week, which has led to their opponents abandoning the run game to a degree. The 57 rush attempts the Chargers defense' has faced is the lowest mark in the NFL, but the 5.0 yards per carry allowed comes in at No. 26. As long as the Giants keep the game close, Skattebo could find success on the ground.

View photos of the New York Giants' 2025 roster as it currently stands.

QB Jaxson Dart's first NFL completion will be to WR Malik Nabers.

John Schmeelk: Fact – After the Chiefs dedicated a number of defenders to Nabers last week and held him to the lowest output of his career (two catches for 13 yards), I would expect the Giants' gameplan to feature Nabers early and often. His first catch will come on an RPO with a slant to Nabers over the middle. It may also just be a WR screen or a jet sweep. It will be something short near the line of scrimmage to give him a chance to run after the catch.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – I'm staying on the Skattebo train here. They appear to be tied at the hip. Why not start Dart off with a completion to his 2025 draft classmate to get his career started?

Matt Citak: Fiction – It would not surprise me to see Dart look in Nabers' direction early and often in his first career start. However, considering the matchup against a tough Chargers defense, I believe Dart's first completion will come on an easy route, such as a running back or tight end screen. So for that reason, I'm going with Cam Skattebo as the recipient of Dart's first NFL completion, while Nabers might get completions two, three, four, etc.

Justin Herbert is the best quarterback the Giants face the rest of the season.

John Schmeelk: Fact – When I rank the NFL's best quarterbacks, I put Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow in no particular order in my top four. After that, things get interesting. Of the quarterbacks remaining on the Giants' schedule, I would put Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Jordan Love in that next tier with Brock Purdy and Geno Smith not far behind. Despite Hurts' championship pedigree and Prescott's history of success against the Giants, I would rank Herbert just above them. His combination of size, arm strength, accuracy, and athleticism put him just above the rest of the group. If he ever puts it all together, which he might be based on the first three games of the season, his physical traits are on par with Josh Allen and give him a ceiling of potential league MVP. The deep post Herbert threw against the Giants in 2021 might be the most impressive throw I have seen in person in my 19+ seasons watching games in person. He's special.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – Herbert may get there as he enters his prime, but I'm picking Jalen Hurts with the Super Bowl MVP Award as the tiebreaker. You can't go wrong with either member from the same 2020 draft class.

Matt Citak: Fact – If we were including games that already took place, this honor would belong to Patrick Mahomes. But from Week 4 on, with the way he's currently playing, Herbert will be the toughest challenge the Giants face at the quarterback position. He went into Week 3 leading the NFL in passing yards to go with a 6-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His 286.7 passing yards per game and 105.5 passer rating would both be new career-highs for the sixth-year quarterback, while his 18 rush attempts for 69 yards would put him on pace to break his previous career-highs of 69 rushes for 306 yards. Herbert is not afraid to sling the ball all over the field, and it certainly helps when you have the trio of wide receivers that the Chargers have.

See the top photos from practice as the Giants prepare for their Week 4 matchup against the Chargers.

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