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Fact or Fiction: Keys to the game; Theo Johnson's TD streak

THEO-JOHNSON-FACT-OR-FICTION

The Giants.com crew is presented with four statements and must decide whether they are Fact or Fiction.

TE Theo Johnson will have a touchdown for the third consecutive week.

John Schmeelk: Fiction – It's always hard to predict how a team will manufacture a touchdown in the red zone in any given week. Theo Johnson has been a popular target down there, but the Giants might opt to run the ball this week, or maybe it will be Daniel Bellinger or Chris Manhertz that ends up being a target on a play-action pass. I'll go with the odds here and say someone else will be the beneficiary against an Eagles defense that has been stingy in both goal-to-go and red zone situations. I'm not sure how many touchdowns we will see scored for either team on Thursday night.

Dan Salomone: Fact – With Darius Slayton ruled out due to a hamstring injury, Theo Johnson and the tight ends could be in line for a lot of targets again in the post-Malik Nabers edition of the offense. Johnson had a career-high six receptions in New Orleans and has three touchdowns in two games with Dart. He had just one in the first 15 games of his career.

Matt Citak: Fiction – It is clear that Jaxson Dart and Theo Johnson have quickly developed a nice rapport. They have connected for three touchdowns in Dart's first two starts, and now that Malik Nabers is done for the season, I expect the rookie quarterback to lean heavily on the young tight end. But I'm not sure Johnson will find the end zone in this matchup. The Eagles have allowed just 19 receptions for 141 yards and one touchdown to the tight end position this season, all of which are among the best in the league. It will be tough to extend his scoring streak to three games against the Eagles.

Giants tight ends will have more than 10 receptions combined.

John Schmeelk: Fiction – I do expect the Giants to use more 12 personnel, much like they did in the first half against the Saints (season-high 40 percent overall in Week 5). But the Eagles' defense has done well against tight ends this season. According to Sumer Sports, the Eagles have allowed the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season (141) and the third lowest completion percentage (56 percent), partly due to the fact that their inside linebackers Zack Baun and Jihaad Campbell might be the best off-ball linebacker pair in the National Football League. It could be tough sledding for Giants tight ends on Thursday night.

Dan Salomone: Fact – See my answer above. All completions and points will be at a premium on a short week against the defending Super Bowl champions in primetime, but the Giants are banged up at receiver while the tight ends have been productive.

Matt Citak: Fiction – See my answer above. I know Johnson and Daniel Bellinger combined for 10 receptions against the Saints, and I wouldn't be surprised if they once again combine for double-digit targets. But it will be tough for Giants tight ends to combine for more than 10 receptions against this tough Eagles secondary.

View photos of the New York Giants' 2025 roster as it currently stands.

The team with the most rushing yards will win on Thursday night.

John Schmeelk: Fact – Neither the Eagles nor the Giants have been consistent this season through the air. The winner will likely be the team that runs it better. The Eagles and Giants are tied for the fifth-fewest 20-yard pass plays (11) allowed this season. The Giants will be missing Malik Nabers for the rest of the season and Darius Slayton in this game, making their deep threats scarce. The Giants' secondary will be challenged, however, with both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith as real downfield threats. It could come down to longer drives sustained by the run game, where Saquon Barkley has been limited to only 3.2 yards per carry this season, with his longest run only 17 yards. The Giants need to keep that going, while using Cam Skattebo themselves to limit Jaxson Dart's exposure to third-and-long situations.

Dan Salomone: Fact – This can be a chicken-or-the-egg conversation. Does the winning team end up with the most rushing yards because they are running particularly well, or do they get a lead and don't need to rely on the pass? In Philadelphia's case, it is usually both. Thursday night starts with stopping the run.

Matt Citak: Fiction – The Eagles were outrushed in two of their four victories, so I don't believe the game will come down squarely to the rushing attack. Instead, I believe whoever wins the turnover battle will emerge with the victory on Thursday. The Giants have finished with a positive turnover ratio in just one game, which was their win over the Chargers. Meanwhile, Week 5 was the only time the Eagles' defense did not have a takeaway, and it was also their only loss this year. If the Giants can protect the football and come away with a few takeaways, they'll have a solid chance at picking up the victory.

The Giants' defense will have at least three sacks.

John Schmeelk: Fact – The Eagles' offensive line has allowed a pressure rate of over 40 percent, which is bottom five in the NFL, according to both PFF and NGS. Landon Dickerson has dealt with injuries all year. Lane Johnson was hurt and missed time. Center Cam Jurgens is coming back from offseason surgery. Mekhi Becton left in free agency. Jalen Hurts does not help matters with the sixth-highest average time to throw (3.08 seconds) in the NFL amongst quarterbacks with at least 50 drop-backs, according to PFF. According to NGS, the Giants had 17 pressures but no sacks last week against the Saints, which was the most pressures any team had this season without recording a sack. The Giants have converted only 12.7 percent of their pressures into sacks this year, seventh-lowest in the NFL and lowest for the Giants since 2018. I expect that to start to turn this week, and the Giants' pass rush should find enough opportunities to get home three times.

Dan Salomone: Fact – The thing about Jalen Hurts, though, is he can still devastate defenses while taking that many sacks. Sometimes it just means he's holding onto the ball to make a loose play, which he does more often than not.

Matt Citak: Fiction – Jalen Hurts was sacked a season-high six times in Sunday's loss to the Broncos, tied for the most in a game since becoming the starter in Week 14 of the 2020 season. If the Giants can generate consistent pressure against Hurts throughout the game Thursday, the defense will have a good opportunity to contain this high-powered Eagles offense. The Giants have reached this number twice already this season, but in nine games against Hurts over the years, they've only sacked him 16 total times. Three might be a tough number to reach.

See who led the Giants in sacks each season since it became an official statistic in 1982.

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