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Fact or Fiction: Defensive stat predictions

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The Giants.com crew is presented with four statements and must decide whether they are Fact or Fiction.

The Giants will have multiple players with double-digit sacks for the first time since Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora in 2010.

John Schmeelk: Fact – It's going to happen this year. The Giants have four players with the ability to break through to double-digit sacks: Dexter Lawrence (9 last year in only 12 games), Brian Burns (12.5 sacks in 2022, 5 straight years with 8+), Kayvon Thibodeaux (11.5 in 2023), and rookie Abdul Carter (12 sacks at Penn State in 2024). Could the sacks get spread out to the point where no one tops 10, but all have more than 8? Sure, but I find it unlikely. If the offense can hold up their end of things and get some early leads, or at the very least keep games closes, more than one of those rushers should finish with 10+ sacks.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – It has happened seven times in franchise history since sacks became an official statistic in 1982.

1985: Leonard Marshall (15.5), Lawrence Taylor (13), George Martin (10)

1986: Lawrence Taylor (20.5), Leonard Marshall (12)

1997: Michael Strahan (14), Robert Harris (10)

1998: Michael Strahan (15), Chad Bratzke (11)

2005: Osi Umenyiora (14.5), Michael Strahan (11.5)

2007: Osi Umenyiora (13), Justin Tuck (10)

2010: Justin Tuck (11.5), Osi Umenyiora (11.5)

We were barreling toward another year for the history books with Dexter Lawrence (9.0), Brian Burns (6.0) and Azeez Ojulari (6.0) each on pace through 10 games. But then injuries happened. I'm only going "fiction" here just out of respect for the double-digit sack mark, which is not as easy as people assume. But I will probably be wrong. There are just too many candidates on this roster in addition to an improved secondary, which will help the pass rush.

Matt Citak: Fact – The Giants were not far off from achieving this last season, as Dexter Lawrence recorded nine sacks in 12 games and Brian Burns finished right behind him with 8.5. Considering the Giants were playing from behind most weeks, which led to the defense facing the third-fewest pass attempts in the league, this was an impressive performance from the two pass rushers. Between Lawrence and Burns, along with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Abdul Carter, I'm not sure exactly which players will reach double-digit sacks. However, I am confident that at least two from that group will hit 10+ sacks, which should lead to the Giants having one of the top pass rushes in the league.

The Giants' defense will notch at least 12 interceptions, which was the league average in 2024.

John Schmeelk: Fact – The Giants had 12 interceptions in 2023 and 13 in 2024. With the additions of veteran ballhawk cornerback Paulson Adebo and smart, rangy safety Jevon Holland, I don't see why they wouldn't top that number in 2025. The additional pass rush should force quarterbacks to unload the ball quickly, which will give the defensive backs a chance to anticipate and jump some routes. I also expect Shane Bowen to disguise more in the defensive backfield to try to confuse quarterbacks. If opponents also feel pressure to score more points due to an improved Giants offense, they may be more apt to put the ball into harm's way.

Dan Salomone: Fact – The tale of the turnover chest is just beginning. In all seriousness, Shane Bowen said you get what you emphasize, and the Giants are putting a premium on taking the ball away. The havoc up front and the additions in the back should lead to an uptick in this department.

Matt Citak: Fact – The Giants registered just 15 total turnovers last season, with 10 coming on fumble recoveries. The defense's five interceptions were among the fewest in the NFL, but as I mentioned in my first answer, the unit faced far more rush attempts than pass attempts due to playing from behind most weeks. I expect to see improvements on both sides of the football this season, which should keep the Giants close in more games than last year. Additionally, the Giants went out and signed a known ballhawk during free agency in Paulson Adebo. Not only that, but Tyler Nubin, who had 13 interceptions in college, did not have a single pick last year. That will change this year, and with Adebo and Nubin both getting into the INT action, 12 across the entire defense seems like a reasonable number.

Get ready for the 2025 season with photos from Media Day at the Quest Diagnostics Training Center.

The defense will send multiple players to the Pro Bowl this season.

John Schmeelk: Fact – The real question is whether the Giants will send someone to the Pro Bowl from the defense not named Dexter Lawrence. Barring some unforeseen circumstances, Lawrence Is going to be a Pro Bowl selection. I believe someone else from the defense will get there, whether it is Brian Burns or one of the veterans in the secondary like Paulson Adebo or Jevon Holland. If either Kayvon Thibodeaux or Abdul Carter explode for double-digit sacks, they would also be in the mix. I feel good about one of those hitting, with at least one more player joining Lawrence at the Pro Bowl.

Dan Salomone: Fact – Dexter Lawrence is becoming a constant presence on Pro Bowl rosters, and it's exciting to see the ultimate heights he could reach with a few more under his belt. In terms of finding a second on defense, I wouldn't rule out rookie Abdul Carter. He has the name recognition, and more importantly, the potential to become a dominant player.

Matt Citak: Fact – This prompt could have said multiple players from the defensive front alone and I still would have had the same answer. Between Lawrence, Burns, Thibodeaux and Carter, it would not surprise me in the slightest if two of them made it to the Pro Bowl. Then you add in Adebo, Jevón Holland, Nubin, Dru Phillips, and Bobby Okereke, and it's easy to see the defense sending two or more players to the Pro Bowl this year. In fact, I'll even go so far as to say I'd be surprised if they didn't send at least two guys to the Pro Bowl.

The Giants' defense will lead the NFC East in sacks.

John Schmeelk: Fiction – The Giants certainly have the talent to lead the division in sacks, but they need to show me they can play with leads often enough to allow their defensive line to tee off and rush the passer, which are the situations that often lead to a high volume of sacks. The other problem is that the Giants have some very accomplished passers on the schedule this year that are difficult to sacks. In their first four games, for example, they will have to sack Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, which will be no easy feat.

Dan Salomone: Fact – The Giants finished second, seven behind the Cowboys' 52, and were on pace for much more. Now they have Abdul Carter, the No. 3 overall pick, and an improved secondary to buy more time on the back end.

Matt Citak: Fact – I'm going all in on the defense. This past year, the Giants led the entire NFL in sacks for a portion of the season. Even with Lawrence and Thibodeaux each missing five games, along with Azeez Ojulari being sidelined for part of the season, the defense still finished tied for the eighth-most sacks with 45. Lawrence is now healthy, Burns is heading into Year 2 with the team, and the pass rush added Carter, the third overall pick in the draft. Only the Dallas Cowboys had more sacks than the Giants last year among the teams in the NFC East, and considering the talent the Giants now have up front (along with the Cowboys losing DeMarcus Lawrence), the Giants finishing atop the NFC East in sacks seems very plausible.

Take a look at rare photos of New York Giants training camps through the years.

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