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Fact or Fiction: Predictions for Abdul Carter's rookie season

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The Giants.com crew is presented with four statements and must decide whether they are Fact or Fiction.

OLB Abdul Carter will break the Giants' rookie sack record of 8.0.

John Schmeelk: Fact – This is going to be extremely close. When you look at the history of pass rushers with similar traits and drafted as high as Carter, they usually finish with around eight sacks in their rookie season. A lot of this will be dictated by how well the Giants stop the run, which would allow them to unleash their pass rush. I think the presence of Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux will help Carter and I bet half of his sacks come from blitzes or other rushes against non-tackles, which would be advantageous matchups for him. His ability to be positioned as a "joker" rusher off the line of scrimmage and standing up behind the defensive line to find mismatches – and take advantage of loops and stunts – will be critical to his success. I think he will finish with 8.5.

Dan Salomone: Fact – I was contemplating "fiction" here because I think people underestimate just how difficult it is to approach double-digit sacks in the NFL, especially for a rookie. Just look at the Giants' all-time sack leaders who were drafted after 1982, the year it became an official statistic. Michael Strahan had just one in nine games (no starts) as a second-round draft choice in 1993. Leonard Marshall had just half of a sack in 14 games (six starts) as a second-round pick in 1983. Osi Umenyiora, another second-round selection, had just one in 13 games (one start) as a second-round pick in 2003. Keith Hamilton had 3.5 in 16 games (no starts) as a fourth rounder in 1992. Justin Tuck, a third-round choice, had one in 14 games (one start) in 2005. Jason Pierre-Paul, the 15th overall pick in his class, had 4.5 in 16 games (no starts) as a rookie in 2010. You get my point. But why is Abdul Carter different? He's the third overall pick. Expectations are higher.

Matt Citak: Fact – Between Carter, Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence, the Giants have the potential to have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. Opposing offenses are not going to be able to double team all four players, and given the track record of the other three, Carter is likely to see plenty of 1-on-1 situations, at least to start the season. The No. 3 overall pick has looked explosive during OTAs, albeit with no contact allowed. If he keeps it up once the pads come on in late July, he will top eight sacks with relative ease.

DL Dexter Lawrence will lead the Giants in sacks for the third time in four years.

John Schmeelk: Fact – Lawrence shattered his career high in sacks last year with nine to lead the Giants. More impressive? He did it in only 12 games. No one can block Dexter Lawrence 1-on-1. Sometime double teams don't even slow him down. There is a fair argument to be made that he is the most dominant player in the National Football League. There's no reason to think with the extra help he will have with Carter and Chauncey Golston that he won't have a monster year.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – If we thought Dex got a lot of attention last season, he added a third Pro Bowl accolade and a career-high nine sacks to his resume. But we know what those double teams will do. They will free up Bran Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and now Abdul Carter.

Matt Citak: Fiction –I've come to learn that one should never doubt Sexy Dexy, but after three consecutive dominant seasons, I expect Lawrence to face the most double teams from opposing offensive lines. That leaves Brian Burns as my choice to lead the team in sacks in 2025. Burns had 8.5 sacks in his first campaign with the Giants last year, and that was with him battling injuries throughout the whole season. If he can stay healthy, and given all of the talent around him, double-digit sacks is attainable for the 27-year-old.

See who led the Giants in sacks each season since it became an official statistic in 1982.

S Dane Belton was the defensive standout of OTAs.

John Schmeelk: Fiction – I know Matt is going to go with "fact" here, so I'll give you something a little different. Cornerback Cor'Dale Flott played very well in OTAs. He was getting his hand on the football coming down on slants and other short passes from zone coverage to prevent catches. He was seldomly beat over the top. He also grabbed at least one interception during spring practices. I wanted to pick Chauncey Golston, who has been all over the place in rushing the passer and stopping the run. But I will follow my own rules and not take seriously anything that happens around the line of scrimmage when no one is wearing any pads.

Dan Salomone: Fact – Why be I asking silly questions like this here to the crew of Giants.com? It's a no-brainer. Belton plundered the most treasure for the turnover chest this spring.

Matt Citak: Fact – I feel like I've been raving about Belton for the last few weeks, but given how he's played, I can't help it. The fourth-year safety has been a ball magnet during team drills this spring, adding the most takeaways to the turnover chest of any player on the defense. Belton was the defensive standout of OTAs, but his fellow safeties deserve some praise, too. Both Jevón Holland and Tyler Nubin also contributed to the turnover chest during OTAs, with the safety trio easily leading the way in the takeaway department. If the pass rush can live up to expectations this season, the entire secondary could be looking at plenty more opportunities for turnovers.

WR Jalin Hyatt was the offensive standout of OTAs.

John Schmeelk: Fact – I don't think it is possible to go with anyone else. Hyatt was Russell Wilson's most frequently targeted wide receiver. He caught passes from different alignments and formations and on all sorts of routes, from slants, to crossers, to go balls, posts and even a very impressive back-shoulder catch down the sideline. I don't recall Hyatt dropping a pass and he looks notably stronger than he has since he arrived in the NFL. It will be telling whether Hyatt can continue this once the pads come on and contact is allowed, but it hard to be optimistic based on how he has played in the spring.

Dan Salomone: Fiction – Rusell Wilson's effect came to light down the stretch. Darius Slayton said there is "a lot of new energy" even though the Giants' returned most of their starters from a year ago. But that's what happens when you add a 10-time Pro Bowler and Super Bowl champion at the most important position in all of sports. His leadership is felt on offense, on defense, on the field, and off the field. Most importantly, he can still sling it.

"Even the first time we threw, me and Slay were both like, this is actually better than we expected," wide receiver Wan'Dale Robinson said. "And so, we were ecstatic about it and couldn't be more happy that he's our quarterback."

Matt Citak: Fact – Hyatt caught my eye when he first walked onto the practice field on Day 1 looking a lot bigger than last season (Darius Slayton told the media Thursday that Hyatt added 15-20 pounds of muscle since the end of the 2024 campaign). While I don't want to get too excited about a good performance in the spring, Hyatt undoubtedly looked much improved from his first two seasons. The third-year wideout seems to have already established some good chemistry with Russell Wilson, as the two connected on numerous passes throughout OTAs. And they weren't only deep passes, either. Wilson did hit Hyatt on a few moon balls during team drills, but the young receiver also caught a good number of passes on routes not as far down the field. In what is a big season for the 23-year-old, Hyatt certainly started Year 3 on a strong note.

See all the action at the Quest Diagnostics Training Center as OTAs come to a close.

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